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REVEALED”- “How many Points does Sunderland AFC really need to Secure Premier League Promotion? You won’t believe the answer
To the surprise of many, Sunderland AFC has found itself in the midst of a genuine promotion battle.
Sitting at the top of the table ahead of the November international break, the big question is how long they can maintain this form if they are to realistically achieve their Premier League dream.
Since the EFL Championship’s rebranding in 2004, Sunderland has been promoted to the Premier League twice, both times as champions. The club made history by becoming the first team to win the ‘Championship’ title in 2004-05 with 94 points, then repeated the feat two years later with 88 points. In many ways, Sunderland became the first modern “yo-yo” club.
Now in its 21st season, we have a wealth of data showing how many points are typically required for automatic promotion in the Championship.
Sunderland’s current points-per-game (PPG) is more than enough to earn promotion. The Black Cats have been a joy to watch this season, with exciting young talents like Jobe Bellingham and Chris Rigg leading the charge, and they are currently the top-scoring team in the league.
With 31 points from 15 games, Sunderland’s PPG stands at 2.07, suggesting that, if they maintain this form, they could finish the season with around 95 points. To put that in perspective, no team has ever failed to secure automatic promotion with this point total. Until May 2024, no team had accumulated 90 points and not been promoted.
The extraordinary promotion battle in 2023-24 raised the stakes in unprecedented ways. Ipswich Town finished with 96 points—more than any other team in history without finishing top—while Leeds United, despite collecting 90 points, became the first team to miss out on promotion via the playoffs. Southampton’s 87 points, while just shy of automatic promotion, would have been enough to secure a top-two finish in 17 of the last 20 seasons.
So, how many points will Sunderland need to secure automatic promotion? To achieve that, they must finish higher than the team in third place. Analyzing all seasons since 2004-05, the average points total for a team finishing in third place is 83, with the lowest ever being 75 (Hull City, 2007/08). This means Sunderland could, theoretically, finish second with as few as 44 points from their remaining 31 games—though that would be highly unlikely given the competitiveness of the current season.
A more realistic target for Sunderland is 88 points, which is the average total for a team finishing in second place. Reaching 88 points would typically ensure automatic promotion, and only three teams in the Championship’s history have finished with fewer points and failed to secure one of the top two spots.
To hit that 88-point target, Sunderland would need to earn 57 more points from the remaining 93. This would allow them to lose up to 12 matches and still achieve promotion.
While their young squad—statistically the youngest in the league—might face challenges in maintaining this level of performance over the course of a long season, the recent slip-ups, including three consecutive draws that saw Sheffield United catch up on points, show that Sunderland has room for error. With pre-season favorites Leeds United now looking more like contenders, Sunderland will hope that a well-timed break can help them regain their winning form as they continue their pursuit of the Premier League.
