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“Forget Werner, this Tottenham player is the third most WASTEFUL and INEFFECTIVE in front of goal,” says Sky Sports pundit, criticizing Spurs forward ranked among the Premier League’s least clinical finishers.
Tottenham’s Summer Signing, Dominic Solanke, Wins Over Sceptics
When Tottenham broke their transfer record to sign Dominic Solanke in the summer, many Spurs fans were skeptical. At the time, the forward was not regarded as one of the most clinical finishers, with some pointing to his underwhelming chance conversion rate, according to xG data. In fact, many questioned why Tottenham didn’t pursue fellow England striker Ivan Toney instead.
However, just a few months into his tenure at Tottenham, the former Bournemouth forward has shown why the club was willing to invest so heavily in him. Solanke, now 26, has contributed significantly to Spurs, impressing with his pressing, link-up play outside the box, and, crucially, his goal-scoring ability. He has netted six goals so far, with four of them coming in the Premier League.
Solanke’s Underwhelming Chance Conversion
Despite his contributions, xG data suggests Solanke’s chance conversion remains problematic. According to the model, he has been the third least effective player in the Premier League in terms of converting chances. With an expected goals (xG) of 6.43, Solanke has only scored four goals, outperforming only Fulham’s Adama Traore and Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes in terms of underperforming their xG.
The Limitations of xG and the Eye Test
The xG model calculates expected goals based solely on the location of a shot, using historical conversion rates for similar chances. However, it doesn’t account for variables like the time a player has to take the shot or the number of defenders in the way—factors that can significantly affect the quality of a chance.
Given Tottenham’s strong presence in the opposition’s box, it’s not surprising that Solanke’s xG is relatively high. However, the eye test suggests that, apart from a few early misses in his first couple of Premier League matches, Solanke hasn’t been overly wasteful in front of goal. In fact, much of his missed xG likely came in those initial games when he failed to convert a few easy chances.
