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“Drop him today”- Unai Emery finally AXED the best player in the squad Vs Nottingham Forest
On Saturday evening, Aston Villa will travel a relatively short 48 miles east to face their Midlands rivals Nottingham Forest at the City Ground.
The Villans have only lost one of their last eight encounters with the Garibaldi Reds, and just one of their previous 11 Premier League meetings, although that solitary defeat came at the City Ground last season. Villa will be aiming to avoid consecutive defeats at this venue for the first time since 1989. Unai Emery’s side comes into this match on the back of three straight victories, having gone winless in eight matches across all competitions prior to that. They have risen back to sixth place in the Premier League and currently sit fifth in the Champions League standings.
Ahead of Saturday’s match, Emery faces a key decision: who should he start as his centre-forward?
Ollie Watkins’ Season So Far
Last season, Ollie Watkins was undoubtedly one of Europe’s top forwards, scoring 27 goals in all competitions, with only Erling Haaland, Cole Palmer, and Alexander Isak scoring more than his 19 Premier League goals.
This earned Watkins a spot in Gareth Southgate’s Euro squad, where he featured sparingly but became a national hero with his dramatic winner against the Netherlands in the semi-finals. However, after a draining summer, Watkins has not quite lived up to his high expectations this season, with just seven goals to his name so far—only two of which have come in his last 11 appearances.
When compared to last season, Watkins’ numbers have declined in nearly every key attacking metric per 90 minutes. While he is taking more shots, fewer are on target, and his goals-per-90 rate has dropped significantly.
Last weekend against Southampton, Watkins began a Premier League match on the bench for the first time this season, raising further concerns about his fitness. Given this, it might be time for Emery to consider giving his other striking option more regular starts.
Time for Jhon Durán to Start
Since almost moving to West Ham United in the summer, Jhon Durán has had an impressive campaign at Villa. On the opening day of the season, the Colombian came off the bench to score a late winner against West Ham, and he has built a reputation as a reliable super-sub. Durán found the net as a substitute against Leicester, Everton, Wolves, and notably, Bayern Munich, all before mid-September. His stunning goal against RB Leipzig on Tuesday brought his season tally to ten goals, despite starting only four matches, including two in the EFL Cup. Durán has scored in all four of his starts.
When comparing Villa’s two centre-forwards this season, Durán has outperformed Watkins in almost every metric, despite having played significantly fewer minutes. Averaging 1.15 goals per game, if Durán had played the same amount of time as Watkins, he would have netted 19 goals across the Premier League and Champions League. Durán’s impressive tally includes goals against Bayern Munich, Bologna, and RB Leipzig. He has the second-best goals-per-90 rate in the Champions League this season, trailing only Robert Lewandowski.
A year ago, the now-departed Douglas Luiz described Watkins as “the best player in the squad,” but with Durán’s impressive form, it may now be the right time for Emery to consider giving his number 11 a break to see if Durán can maintain his perfect scoring record in his starts this season.
