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“There are a few reasons why I think Leeds [will win] here and is because….EFL expert explains why Leeds will beat Sheffield United and highlights ‘huge gulf in quality’
Looking at the Championship’s recent form table, it’s clear that Yorkshire rivals Leeds United and Sheffield United are nearly inseparable ahead of their crucial showdown at Bramall Lane on Monday.
In their last six league matches, both sides have won five, with Leeds earning 16 points and Sheffield United just one behind on 15.
Over the past ten games, Leeds have accumulated 24 points from a possible 30, giving them a 95% chance of promotion according to Opta, while Sheffield United has earned 22 points in the same stretch.
Despite the close numbers, one EFL expert, George Elek of Not the Top 20, is confident that Leeds will extend their lead at the top with a potentially season-defining victory in Sheffield.
There are several key factors behind Elek’s belief in a Leeds win. He points to their improved away form, with Daniel Farke’s side remaining unbeaten on the road since their loss to Blackburn Rovers in November.
Leeds have secured convincing wins at Coventry City and Watford, triumphing by a combined score of 6-0, proving they have overcome their early struggles on away turf.
“This is a massive game. If Sheffield United win, they’ll leapfrog Leeds into top spot,” Elek says, referring to a dramatic late win against Sunderland that saw Pascal Struijk score in the 95th minute. “Leeds’ dominance at Elland Road has been clear all season, and they showed that again against Sunderland.
While their away form had been inconsistent earlier in the season, they’ve now won their last two away matches 2-0 and 4-0.
There was a 0-0 draw with Burnley, and a late collapse at Hull after leading 3-1, but they’ve won at Derby and Stoke.”
Elek continues, “Leeds have massively improved on the road, especially considering they had just two wins from their first seven away games.”
On the other hand, Sheffield United has lost only twice at home this season, but Elek believes their results haven’t always matched their performances.
He points to recent matches where the Blades have been lucky, such as a 3-0 loss to Hull City in January, a narrow 1-0 win over Derby in which they created little, and a fortunate victory over Portsmouth where they were outplayed.
“They beat Boro, but that was a team in freefall, and they were lucky not to be behind at half-time against Luton,” Elek adds. “I see a clear quality gap between these two teams, and I no longer have concerns about Leeds replicating their home form away from home.”
Elek remains confident that Leeds will come out on top, despite Sheffield United’s home advantage.
In Sheffield United’s pre-match press conference, manager Chris Wilder couldn’t confirm whether injured strikers Kieffer Moore and Tom Cannon would be fit to face Leeds.
Midfielder Gus Hamer, a key figure for the Blades and often linked with Leeds, is also struggling with injury, although Wilder is optimistic Hamer will feature at Bramall Lane.
Interestingly, Leeds’ chief executive Angus Kinnear revealed in September that they had tried to sign Hamer from their rivals during the previous summer.
