“Could Wrexham Face Relegation in the 2025–26 Championship Season? The Stats that should TERRIFY Wrexham fans. Expert sounds alarm
Can Wrexham Avoid a Championship Relegation Battle in 2025–26?
After securing back-to-back promotions, Wrexham are preparing for their first season in the Championship in 43 years.
Following impressive ascents from League Two and League One, the big question is whether their momentum will carry into the second tier—or if they’ll face a harsh reality check.
While some believe Phil Parkinson’s side can continue their rise and consolidate, others predict a tough campaign.
Historical data offers mixed signals: since 2015-16, nearly 30% of newly promoted teams have been relegated in their first Championship season.
On average, such teams earn 52.8 points—but that figure is skewed by standout campaigns like Ipswich Town’s 96-point haul in 2023–24.
Interestingly, the threshold for survival appears to be rising. Luton Town and Birmingham City were relegated with 49 and 50 points in recent seasons, far higher than the 44 and 37 needed in years prior.
This trend suggests a more competitive Championship and a tougher task for newcomers like Wrexham.
Let’s take a deeper look at Wrexham’s chances of survival, based on data from Fotmob and recent performance trends.
Recruitment Strategy: Time for a Rethink?
Wrexham’s rise has been powered in part by significant investment from owners Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney, often targeting older, experienced players.
Names like Jay Rodriguez, James McClean, Matthew James, and Steven Fletcher have helped deliver results in the lower leagues.
In League One, Wrexham had the second-oldest squad, with an average age of 28.4. But Championship football requires higher physical output over a grueling 46-game campaign, and key veterans like McClean and James may struggle with consistency.
Despite this, Wrexham continue to be linked with aging stars such as Jonny Evans, Jamie Vardy, and Craig Dawson—all 35 or older.
While their experience is valuable, the pace and intensity of the Championship could expose physical limitations.
To stay up, Wrexham may need to shift focus toward younger, more dynamic players who can sustain high performance levels throughout the season.
A Style That Could Suit the Championship
One of Wrexham’s key strengths could be their tactical approach. Under Phil Parkinson, they’ve adopted a direct, no-nonsense style that worked well in League One.
The Red Dragons recorded 24 clean sheets last season—more than any other side—and conceded just 0.7 goals per match.
Their defensive solidity could be crucial, especially given that the three teams relegated from the Championship this season had some of the worst defensive records.
Offensively, Wrexham favored direct play, ranking third in accurate long balls per match (30.7) and first in accurate crosses (5.8).
This style could prove more adaptable in the Championship, where building out from the back often invites pressure from more aggressive and technically gifted opponents.
Portsmouth manager John Mousinho highlighted this issue during their recent campaign, admitting their possession-heavy tactics made life harder early on:
“We were probably too focused on trying to build from the back and it cost us.”
Wrexham’s ability to transition quickly and apply pressure may give them an edge over teams that struggle to adapt their playstyle.
Underlying Stats Paint a Cautionary Picture
Despite solid defensive records, Wrexham’s underlying data raises concerns. Based on expected goals (xG), they would have finished 9th in League One—not 2nd.
They conceded 46.3 xG across the season, 12.3 more than the goals they actually let in.
This suggests that their defense may have benefited from poor opposition finishing and standout goalkeeping from Arthur Okonkwo. Against Championship-quality attacks, that luck may not hold.
Offensively, the team scored 12.5 more goals than expected from their chances—indicating clinical finishing or, again, poor goalkeeping from opponents. Both trends suggest overperformance that might not be sustainable one tier higher.
Wrexham must find ways to diversify their attack and shore up their defense to avoid being punished more regularly at Championship level.
Home Fortress Could Be Key to Survival
Wrexham’s home form has been a cornerstone of their success. At the STōK Cae Ras, they lost just twice in League One and averaged 2.3 points per game. Away, they earned only 1.7 points per game and suffered six defeats.
Portsmouth, another promoted side, used their strong home form to stay clear of relegation in the Championship—averaging 1.74 PPG at home compared to just 0.61 away. That kept them five points above the drop zone with two games to spare.
Wrexham will need to maintain their home dominance and aim for improvement on the road if they want to ensure Championship safety.
So, Will Wrexham Struggle in the Championship?
Wrexham’s journey to the Championship has been rapid and impressive. However, the 2025–26 season presents new and tougher challenges.
The jump in opposition quality, rising survival thresholds, and reliance on aging players and unsustainable statistical trends suggest they may face a serious relegation battle.
That said, their effective tactical approach, strong home record, and potential smart recruitment could give them a fighting chance.
If they evolve quickly, they might just beat the odds once again. If not, they could find themselves returning to League One sooner than expected.
